Research Consultant

Research Consultant: Syria country study, Return Implications for Host Economies

Description

Please note the application deadline is November 20th. The consultancy is based in Syria/Remote

Background

Prosper Global is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Now, and for the future. To do this, we know our teams do their best work when they are diverse and every team member feels that they belong. We welcome diverse backgrounds, perspectives, and skills so that we can be stronger and have long-term impact.

Prosper Global has developed a Crisis Analysis function to support our programming in the most complex contexts, including Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine, and others. The Crisis Analysis supports Prosper Global’s in-country programming as well as the wider humanitarian response in the region through the provision of quality, timely and relevant analytical products. This analysis is grounded in Prosper Global’s position as an operational NGO, keeping our products constructive and relevant for humanitarian, early recovery, and development responders and donors within a given crisis.

This consultancy is part of “Strengthening Regional Policy Dialogue and Partnerships on Solutions”, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Prosper Global initiative funded by the Regional Development and Protection Program (RDPP). RDPP is a multi-donor platform managed by the Kingdom of Denmark that has supported refugees and displaced communities in the countries neighboring Syria since 2014; the initiative supports evidence-based advocacy and partnerships on adaptive solutions for refugee and displaced communities.

Purpose / Project Description

Under this initiative, Prosper Global and UNDP are conducting “Return Implications for Host Economies”, a set of three country studies on Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. The studies examine how Syrian refugee returns since December 2024 affect labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances, and investment in Lebanon and Jordan, and how returns shape the same dynamics in the main areas of return in Syria. Each study will be led by a dedicated consultant. Findings from the three studies will be compared to identify common challenges, opportunities and areas of convergence, and to develop regional recommendations to support policy dialogue with host governments, the private sector and local actors, and to inform the planning of UN agencies, donors and humanitarian and development actors.

This consultancy covers the Syria study, which examines how returns from Lebanon and Jordan affect the economies of the main areas of return, and whether those areas can absorb returnees. Labor and consumer markets, access to public services and investment will shape whether returnees remain in areas of return; where they cannot rebuild their livelihoods, some may move within Syria and others may leave the country again. Evidence on returnees’ labor market outcomes in Syria is largely absent. The study will cover three to four areas that have received large numbers of returnees from Lebanon and Jordan, with primary data collected by Syrian research partners under their security protocols, and will produce a country report following the same structure as the Lebanon and Jordan reports. It examines economic capacity, such as jobs, prices and services, and is not a judgment on whether return is safe, voluntary and dignified.

Consultant Objectives

• Assess whether the skills and work experience of returnees from Lebanon and Jordan match local labor demand in the main areas of return, in which sectors and on what terms, and how returnees fare compared with residents and returning internally displaced people.

• Assess how returns have affected local prices, rents, housing availability and the supply of goods, and where demand is outrunning supply.

• Assess whether education, health, civil documentation and housing, land and property (HLP) services in areas of return can meet the added demand, and identify the main bottlenecks.

• Map the public, private, diaspora and donor investment reaching areas of return and what constrains it (for example access to banking, legal certainty, sanctions-related restrictions, property disputes or security).

• Document the economic ties that remain between returnees and Lebanon or Jordan, such as remittances, seasonal or circular work and cross-border trade; how residents view returns and their effect on local economic conditions; and what happens to returnees who cannot secure a livelihood.

• Develop country-level recommendations on measures (for example service planning, investment facilitation, support for civil documentation and HLP, and arrangements for cross-border work and trade) that could help areas of return absorb returnees in ways that benefit both returnees and residents, and contribute to the regional recommendations.

Consultant Activities

The Consultant will:

• Review published and ongoing studies on returns and the economies of areas of return in Syria, including work by UN agencies, the World Bank, ILO, research centers and NGOs, to confirm evidence gaps, avoid duplication and refine the research questions.

• Check data availability on labor, prices and rents, service use, aid flows and returns, including the geographic level, period and access conditions of each source, and recommend which additional components are feasible (for example remote-sensing or mobility data, analysis of funding flows, or forward-looking scenarios).

• Select, with Syrian research partners, three to four areas of return (likely candidates include Dar’a, Rural Damascus, Homs, Aleppo and Idleb) based on UNHCR and IOM return data and on access and security conditions, and finalize the research design, sampling, sector selection, tools, workplan and risk-mitigation measures for approval by Prosper Global and UNDP before fieldwork begins.

• Analyze secondary data, including IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix data, UNHCR return monitoring, REACH assessments, WFP market monitoring and World Bank economic monitoring.

• Brief Syrian research partners on the tools, sampling and ethics protocols, oversee and quality-assure their data collection, and adjust coverage to access conditions, documenting any gaps.

• Conduct or oversee at least 20 key informant interviews with local councils, chambers of commerce, line directorates, service providers, banks, traders, donors and NGOs, covering HLP at the level of services and constraints through interviews with institutions. The final number and composition will be set out in the inception report.

• Conduct or oversee at least two sector deep-dives (agriculture and construction are expected, to be confirmed at inception), covering employers, workers and each sector’s supply chain.

• Oversee focus group discussions with returnees f